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Wednesday, September 06, 2017

 

Geomagnetic warning and Aurora Watch (possible major storm; 6-8 September)

The sun has been firing off a series of flares from a large sunspot group some of which are geoeffective. The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning and aurora watch for 6-8 September (UT) due to expected impact of  a coronal mass ejection. This is expected to arrive late in the UT day on the 6th (which is the morning of the 7th Australian time).  The SWS predicts active to major storm conditions. The Space Weather Prediction Service has Predicted a G2-G3 storm on  6-7 August UT (with most of the action after sunrise on the 7th, but possibly G2 storms around 4 am and some possible action around twilight on on the evening of the 7th). However, uncertainty in the time of arrival may mean the CME arrives earlier of later (with better viewing opportunities for Australia on the evening of the 7th).

If these geomagnetic events occur and result in aurora they could be seen from Tasmania, Southern Victoria, and possibly central Victoria to Northern New South wales, Southern SA and Southern WA. if G2-3 storms persist and weather permitting. The Moon is a day after full, and will significantly interfere with aurora. That said, last weeks Moonlight aurora was easily seen.  Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly. In the last aurora, definite action was seen in the "Blue Hour of twilight", so be alert on the evening of the 7th from twilight on.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc, curtains and picket fences were seen in last weeks aurora despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is  sill not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 17/42
ISSUED AT 0108UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2017
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

Expect an increase in geomagnetic activity to Active to Major
Storm conditions with possible cases of Severe Storm conditions
at higher latitudes. Active to Major Storm conditions for 7 September
due to continuing CME effects which will gradually decrease over
8 September.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 06-08 SEPTEMBER 2017
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
06 Sep:  Active to Major Storm
07 Sep:  Active to Major Storm
08 Sep:  Active

_____________________________________________________________

SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0126 UT ON 06 Sep 2017 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

Best chance for aurora sightings from southern Australian regions on
the night of the 7th of September (AEST) due to expected CME arrival.
Also a small chance of aurora sighting in the pre-dawn hours tomorrow,
7 September, if the CME arrives much earlier than the model prediction
indicates.

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Comments:
Great prediction jobs you did out there.
 
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