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Wednesday, February 14, 2018

 

[Aurora Alert] Geomagnetic warning and Aurora Watch (14-15 February)

The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning and aurora watch for 14-15 February (UT) due to expected arrival of a CME from a recent solar flare. This is expected to arrive early in the UT day on the 15th (which is the early evening  of the 15th Australian time) and may persist unlit shortly after midnight.  The SWS predicts active conditions. The Space Weather Prediction Service and NOAA has Predicted a G1 storm on the evening of 15 February.

If these geomagnetic events occur and result in aurora they could be seen from Tasmania weather permitting. The Moon is new and will not interfere with aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

This event is unlikely to be as spectacular as those in last year, but still worth a look as viewing conditions are good.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.
As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in Septembers aurora  last despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is still not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/01
ISSUED AT 0004UT/13 FEBRUARY 2018
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

From late 14 Feb to early 15 Feb magnetic conditions may reach
active to minor storm levels due to expected arrival of the CME
associated with the C1.5 flare peaked at 12/0135 UT.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 14-15 FEBRUARY 2018
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
14 Feb:  Unsettled to Active
15 Feb:  Active

_____________________________________________________________
SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0024 UT ON 13 Feb 2018 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

An active solar region has rotated into a geoeffective position and
produced a coronal mass ejections (CME). There is an increased chance
of auroral activity during the period 14-17 Feb. Warnings and/or
alerts will follow if significant geomagnetic activity occurs.

Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

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